Sunday, 1 November 2015

Solar storm expected November 2nd and 3rd

Watch the skies on Monday night between 18:00 to 21:00 GMT. G3 Magnetic storm expected and the KP index could hit K7

NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Nov. 2nd-3rd when a fast-moving stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind speeds could exceed 800 km/s and spark a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm

So you thought Halloween was over? Think again. On the sun today there is a monster sunspot. AR2443 has more than quadrupled in size since it first appeared on Oct. 29th, and it now stretches more than 175,000 km from end to end. Philippe Tosi took this picture of the active region on Nov. 1st from his backyard observatory in Nîmes, France:

Stretching more than 108,739 mi (175,000 km) across, AR2443 poses a risk for M and X class solar flares. 

The sunspot has more than a dozen dark cores, many of which are as large as terrestrial continents--and a couple as large as Earth itself. These dimensions make it an easy target for backyard solar telecopes.
Of greater interest is the sunspot's potential for explosive activity. The spotty complex has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M- and X-class flares. Any such explosions will be geoeffective as the sunspot turns squarely toward Earth in the days ahead.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2015
Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, November 1, 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0027Z from Region 2443 (N07E29). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 01/0345Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0428Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (02 Nov), active to major storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (04 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 124
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 036/065-033/050-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 35/40/15
Major-severe storm 40/30/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 90/85/50