Thursday, 25 June 2015

Jun 25 07:24 Moderately strong CME impact

Latest Solar activity


June 25th 09:24 G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) - High latitude sky watchers have a chance to see visual aurora. The higher middle latitudes might see aurora on the northern or southern horizon, depending on which hemisphere you are located.

June 25th  08:33 Strong M7.9 solar flare from sunspot region

June 25th 07:24 Moderately strong CME impact A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has arrived at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 83.75 km/sec to 704.8 km/sec. Solar wind speed: 704.8 km/sec and density 3.9 p/cm3 IMF Bt (strength): 14.9 nT - Bz 12 nT


(June 25 1200UTC) Based on flare and C2 images my initial impact estimation window is 2200UTC
June 26 – 1600UTC June 27. I need to see CACTus and C3 images before making a final prediction. NASA and NOAA should make their estimations in a few hours.

(June 25 1033UTC) Satellite coronagraphs confirm that the CME is heading our way.

(June 25 0935UTC) M7.9 Solar Flare has erupted w/Earth-Directed CME. The CME in the solar wind has also triggered another geomagnetic storm.

 GOES Magnetometer Space Weather disruptions show as large spikes Space Weather calm shows as smooth curves

 KP Index [0-3] Green - Stable/Calm Magnetosphere. [4] Yellow - Unstable Magnetosphere. [5+] Red - Geomagnetic Storm Conditions

GOES Electron Flux This shows the High Energy Electron Bombardment. The radiation storm levels for electrons begin between 10^5 and 10^6 particle count and become significant as we approach 10^7.